Recently, how to measure the 1.5 degree temperature rise target of the Paris Climate Agreement has become a hot topic. The 2015 agreement text states that efforts will be made to limit the temperature rise by 1.5 ℃ compared to before the Industrial Revolution. But how to measure this temperature rise? How long should the observation period be used to measure comparison? In the 6th Assessment Report of the United Nations IPCC, a 20-year observation period was adopted. Some scientists suggest choosing a year as the midpoint, looking back at historical data from the past decade, while looking forward at predicted data for the next decade. Regardless of the measurement setting used, the complexity of the problem lies in the fact that the temperature of the Earth fluctuates periodically at various time scales, such as daytime and nighttime cycles, gradual changes in different months, and seasonal cycles throughout the year, as well as the presence of climate factors other than anthropogenic emissions, such as sunspots, El Ni ñ o.
Similarly, the carbon emissions level of an economy does not show a linear increase or decrease. This article aims to discuss how to set measurable carbon peak targets for China? After all, the goal of peaking carbon emissions has a similar level of complexity as the 1.5 degree global climate target.
How is' peak 'considered?
Even an economy with a long-term downward trend in emissions (such as the European Union) still exhibits significant fluctuations in different years due to economic, social, climatic, and even sudden factors. For example, Germany's goal of reducing emissions by 40% in 2020 compared with 1990 is largely due to the COVID-19 epidemic rather than structural changes. After 2020, emissions have risen again. This is in line with expectations. This political target for single year emissions is measurable and operationally compatible with the government governance system. Therefore, although cyclical factors are ignored, it is still a common practice adopted by countries around the world to commit to goals.
In 2020, China made an international commitment to strive for peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The carbon neutrality target for 2060 is clear - continuously reducing carbon emissions within 40 years, ultimately achieving overall emissions neutrality, which is measurable. However, the 2030 carbon peak target is not like this. Because it is not a requirement for 2030 itself, but rather a requirement for the emission dynamics of subsequent years. The precise meaning of the "peak" target is that the emission level after that point in time should be lower than that of previous years. Therefore, if we understand peaking as a sufficient and necessary condition, actions before 2030 are only necessary conditions to achieve peaking, while the sufficient condition for carbon peaking is to verify whether it has already peaked in the years after 2030. It will take many years after 2030 to fully observe and confirm whether this goal has been achieved or not. Therefore, measuring 'carbon peak' must take into account the changes over the years. How long to set the "observation period" has become a question that must be clarified in advance.
Suggestions for a 10-year observation period
Excluding the impact of extreme events, the fluctuation range of China's carbon emission growth rate over the past 30 years is generally between 0-10%. Since 1990, China's annual energy consumption and emissions dynamics have gone through several distinct stages. And a complete economic cycle usually lasts 10-12 years. Before 2002, it was in the initial stage of economic takeoff, with an average annual emission growth rate of 4.4% since 1990; After joining the WTO in 2002, it entered the "golden decade" of economic growth, while the proportion of coal consumption did not decrease but instead increased. During this period, oil prices reached a historical high of $138, and the average annual emissions growth rate was 9.7%. In the following 10 years, with the gradual decline in economic growth and the increasing intensity of energy conservation and emission reduction policies, the growth rate of energy consumption and the proportion of coal decreased significantly, with an average annual emission growth rate of 3%.
How will the future change? No one can accurately know the future, it is still in a random state. Assuming that in a certain year (such as the recent years of massive growth in renewable installed capacity), the increase in renewable energy exceeds the total demand for new energy, then the consumption of fossil fuels decreases that year, and the emission growth rate is less than zero, which is a decrease. This is undoubtedly correct in mathematics. However, it has little meaning for the changes in subsequent years, as the development of reality is not continuous and monotonous.
Based on the historical laws of the past and the random nature of the future, a 10-year emission observation period can generally cover the entire economic cycle. Under this premise, we discuss measuring carbon peak.
If the average emissions from 2031 to 2035 are lower than the level in 2030, taking 2030 as the midpoint, then logically it can be considered that the peak has been reached. Considering that a single year in 2030 still has short-term factors, this year can be further traced back to history to reflect the impact of other short-term factors, such as comparing the average emissions from 2026 to 2030. This ten-year observation period roughly covers a complete economic cycle. If the average emissions in the next five years (2031-2035) are not greater than those in the first five years (2026-2030), it can be considered as a natural "peak". Regardless of the setting, measurable regulations must be provided in advance to provide policy and legal implications.
A mid-term goal before 2026
The above methods have solved the measurable problems in the reality of the 2030 goals. However, at the same time, it also reveals additional policy related issues: to determine whether China's peak climate goals have been achieved, we must wait until at least 2035. Compared to our current point in time, this still seems too far away. We need a more recent measurable goal, especially considering the current major policy trends.
Many fields need to undergo a 'leapfrog' change around 2030.
Various signs indicate that in order to reduce emissions more quickly and effectively, China needs to change course, especially in the areas of coal-fired power development and power grid system reform. At present, various expectations, policies, and plans seem to have pushed all major changes to 2030 and beyond. This gives us a feeling that many fields need to undergo a "leapfrog" change around 2030. The author believes that setting other measurable goals during the period of 2025-2035 is meaningful. For example, energy structure, proportion of renewable energy, and total energy consumption and carbon emissions. It will not push too many departmental reform tasks beyond 2030, thus avoiding the risk of being "too late" by then.
Measurable 'peak' goals
In 2023, President Xi Jinping emphasized at the National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection that the "dual carbon" goal is determined and cannot be moved, but the path, method, pace, and intensity to achieve this goal should and must be determined by ourselves and not influenced by others. This is fully reasonable. A good climate reduction target requires three conditions simultaneously: ambition, credibility, and consistency. But before that, it should at least be measurable. This constitutes the basic premise for determining whether the goal is credible and ambitious. The difficulty in determining the feasibility of future goals lies in the uncertainty of the future. For the 2060 target, we can also infer its credibility through simulation or evaluation based on today's policy intensity. However, the assessment of 'carbon peak' will be longer on a time scale. Therefore, specifying a shorter observation period is a feasible solution and can also serve as a tool for coordinating international commitments with domestic emission reduction agendas.
Source: Pengpai News · Pengpai Account · Paike
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